Value of VNPI and MSKCC nomogram to estimate risk of ipislateral recurrence of DCIS of the breast

The Van Nuys Prognostic Index (VNPI) and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) nomogram were designed to estimate the risk of ipsilateral recurrence in DCIS patients. A retrospective study at Massachusetts General Hospital (Boston) investigated baseline VNPI and MSKCC nomogram among DCIS patients with known recurrence outcomes. Ipsilateral recurrence during follow-up occurred in 6.8% of patients. Average baseline VNPI scores were 7 in patients with recurrence during follow-up and 7 in patients without recurrence during follow-up (p=0.14). Per baseline MSKCC nomogram, the average 5-year recurrence risks were 5% in patients with recurrence during follow-up and 4% in patients without recurrence during follow-up (p=0.09). The authors conclude that more robust prognostic models are needed.