Systematic analysis of global, regional, and national burden of breast cancer among females, 1990-2023, with forecasts to 2050

As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, the GBD 2023 Breast Cancer Collaborators published an updated comprehensive assessment of epidemiological trends, disease burden, and risk factors associated with breast cancer globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2023, with forecasts to 2050, In 2023, there were an estimated 2.30 million breast cancer incident cases, 764 000 deaths and 24.1 million DALYs among females globally. In the World Bank low-income group, with a low age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR; 44.2 per 100 000 person-years, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was the highest (24.1 per 100 000). The highest ASIR was in the high-income group (75.7 per 100 000), and the lowest ASMR was in the upper-middle-income group (11.2 per 100 000). Between 1990 and 2023, the ASIR in the low-income group increased by 147.2%, compared with a 1.2% change in the high-income group. The ASMR decreased in the high-income group (-29.9%) but increased in the low-income group (+ 99.3%). The increase in age-standardized DALY rates followed that of ASMRs. Risk factors such as dietary risks, tobacco use, and high fasting plasma glucose contributed to 28.3% of breast cancer DALYs in 2023; the risk factors with a decrease in attributable DALYs between 1990 and 2023 were high alcohol use and tobacco. By 2050, the global incident cases of breast cancer among females were forecast to reach 3.56 million, with 1.37 million deaths. The authors conclude that the mounting breast cancer burden, disproportionally affecting some of the world’s most vulnerable populations, will further exacerbate health inequalities across the globe without decisive immediate action.