Simulation modeling study of risk of chronic conditions due to accelarated aging among survivors of childhood cancer

The lifetime risk of aging-related diseases among survivors of childhood cancer, accelerated by cancer treatment exposure, is unknown. Understanding this risk can provide a more comprehensive assessment of long-term health across the lifespan of survivors and guide adult care. A modeling study using data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and national databases, projected long-term outcomes for 8 health conditions (breast cancer, colorectal cancer, glial tumors, sarcomas, heart failure, coronary heart disease/myocardial infarction, stroke, and valvular disease) among childhood cancer survivors and the general population. Childhood cancer survivors were 2.7 times more likely to develop one of the conditions before age 65 years, with onset occurring 17.7 years earlier than the general population. The magnitude and timing of risks did not change substantially among survivors diagnosed over 3 decades. The authors conclude that early cancer and cardiovascular prevention strategies should be prioritized for all childhood cancer survivors, beginning decades earlier than for the general population.