Prospective study of prediction of invasive melanoma risk

Many tools exist to predict future melanoma risk, but most have limited accuracy and are potentially biased. In the prospective QSkin cohort study of 41,919 participants with a 10-year follow-up in Quensland, Australia, a new risk prediction tool for invasive melanoma was developed, and, using 16 predictors, delivered improved prediction performances over previous tools. The new tool would identify 76% of future melanoma cases within 10 years by targeting individuals in the top 40% of predicted risk. The authors conclude that this prediction tool offers the potential for targeting individuals at higher risk of melanoma for systematic early detection activities.