Projected cancer burden among sexual and gender minorities by generation in the United States

Sexual and gender minority (SGM) representation is growing in the United States. A retrospective study using the SEER 12-registry database evaluated the projected SGM breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, and melanoma cancer burden amidst shifting cancer patterns. Nordpred age-period-cohort models projected incidence through 2040-2044. At age 55-59, breast cancer cases among Millennial SGMs were 3,672% higher than among Silent Generation SGMs (34,850 versus 924 cases), melanoma cases were 1,061% higher (5,526 versus 476 cases), and colorectal cancer cases were 142% higher (23,594 versus 1,023 cases). Compared with Generation X, Millennial prostate cancer cases were 142% higher (8,100 versus 3,344 cases) and lung cancer cases were 169% higher (5,451 versus 2,029 cases). By 2040-2044, Millennials were projected to account for 68.4% of breast cancer cases and 59.7% of colorectal cancer cases among SGMs. The authors conclude that at ages 55-59, five-year cancer burden was projected to be 15 times higher among Millennial than Silent Generation SGMs (77,521 versus 5,134 cases), driven primarily by the larger SGM population in younger generations.