Longitudinal cohort study of a risk prediction model for development of heart failure or cardiomyopathy after breast cancer treatment

Women receiving breast cancer (BC) treatment are at risk for heart failure or cardiomyopathy (HF/CM). No standard method exists to identify women at risk who might benefit from preventive cardiac strategies and surveillance during and after treatment. Researchers developed a model predicting the 10-year risk of HF/CM in women receiving systemic treatment for invasive early-stage BC. The model included age at BC diagnosis, race and ethnicity, area-level socioeconomic status, local and systemic BC treatments, cancer stage, obesity, and history of hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, smoking, and other CV conditions. In the validation study, including 26,044 women with newly diagnosed invasive local or regional BC who were members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California, the risk prediction model had good discrimination and calibration characteristics, demonstrating the ability to predict the 10-year risk of HF/CM.