European Union cancer mortality predictions for the year 2024

Based on linear regression analysis of WHO and Eurostat data, researchers from universities in Italy predicted cancer mortality for 2024 in the European Union. The total number of predicted cancer death is 1,270,800, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 123.2 per 100,000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.0 per 100,000 women (-4.3%). Pancreatic cancer displayed unfavorable predicted rates for both sexes (versus 2018 + 1.6% among men and + 4.0% among women), as did lung cancer among women (+ 0.3%). Colorectal cancer mortality shows falls versus 2018 by 4.8% among men and 9.5% among women. The largest declines in CRC mortality are predicted for those aged 70 years or older. Below age 50 years, CRC mortality showed unfavorable trends for both sexes in Italy, for men in Poland and Spain, and for women in Germany. The authors conclude that predicted cancer mortality rates in the EU remain favorable. Attention should be paid to the predicted increases in CRC mortality among young adults.