European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2026

Analysis of cancer death certifications and population data fro the World Health Organization and United Nations databases resulted in European cancer mortality prediction for the year 2026. The authors estimate 1,230,000 European Union (EU) cancer deaths in 2026, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 114.1/100,000 males (-7.8% versus 2020-2022) and 74.4/100,000 females (-5.9%). In the EU countries and the whole EU, favorable trends are predicted for most cancers, except female pancreatic cancer. In the UK, predicted rates are also favorable, except female colorectal cancer. Lung cancer mortality continues to decrease markedly among males, while a leveling off of rates is expected among females in all considered countries and the whole of EU, except for Spain (+ 2.4%). Among females, lung cancer mortality declines are confined to those aged <65 years, while unfavorable trends continue in older age groups. Around 7.3 (5.0 in males and 2.3 in females) million total cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU since the peak observed in 1988.