Decision analytical model study of cervical cancer screening, HPV vaccination, and cervical cancer elimination in South Korea

To accelerate cervical cancer elimination, it is essential to evaluate the combined impact of ongoing screening and HPV vaccination efforts, as the disease remains a significant global public health concern. A decision analytical model study, which simulated the South Korean population from 2024 to 2100, found that under the current screening policy (2-year Pap testing starting at age 20 years), the incidence rate was expected to decline below the WHO disease elimination threshold of 4 cases per 100,000 women by 2044. In an ideal scenario with 70% screening and 90% vaccination rated, high-risk HPV testing was estimated to lead to elimination by 2034. The authors conclude that implementing high-risk HPV testing and increasing HPV vaccination rated could accelerate cervival cancer elimination.