Absolute risk of oropharyngeal cancer after an HPV16-E6 serology test

The incidence of HPV-associated oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is rising, and earlier detection could be beneficial. The HPV16-E16 blood-based biomarker has high sensitivity and specificity for HPV-drive OPC, but the absolute risk of OPC after a positive or negative HPV16-E6 test is unknown. A study from the Human Papilloma Cancer Cohort Consortium found that a substantial proportion of HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals will develop oropharyngeal cancer, while the risk after a negative test is very low. The authors conclude that the high level of risk after a positive test may warrant periodic, minimally invasive surveillance.