A 10-year microsimulation model of the impact of multicancer early detection tests on cancer stage shift

Early detection of cancer improves survival following diagnosis. However, routine screening is limited to a few cancer types. Multicancer early detection (MCED) tests could improve cancer screening by simultaneously detecting multiple cancer types. A microsimulation model evaluated th potential impact of MCED testing on cancer stage shift in the US general population. The authors developed a model of 14 solid tumor cancer types. Over 10 years, supplemental MCED testing led to a 10% increase in stage I diagnoses, 20% increase in stage II diagnoses, 34% increase in stage III diagnoses, and 45% decrease in stage IV diagnoses, relative to standard of care alone. The largest absolute reductions in stage IV diagnoses were in lung (400 versus 765 per 100,000), colorectal (96 versus 236), and pancreatic (89 versus 211) cancer. The largest relative reduction were in cervical (83%), liver (74%), and colorectal (59%) cancer. The authors conclude that MCED testing has the potential to substantially reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses and improve outcomes across multiple cancer types.